Ренесанс на ядрената енергия?

За всички, които знаят немски, тук могат да прочетат един нов доклад, който твърди, че до 2030 г. никакъв ядрен ренесанс не се очаква. Напротив - броят на атомните реактори ще намалее с 22% до 2020 г. и с 29% до 2030 г. спрямо този от март 2009 г.

Ето и резюме на английски:

Objective: Many countries have recently expressed a growing interest in nuclear energy. This study aims at providing a realistic outlook of the probable worldwide future use of nuclear energy until the year 2030. We answer the question whether nuclear energy is likely to undergo a renaissance in the future.

Methodic approach: After briefly surveying the current status and the history of the worldwide use of nuclear energy, we present international scenarios of nuclear energy use, as well as announcements of new nuclear reactors. The list of reactors officially rated as ”under construction” by IAEA is critically evaluated. At the core of our analysis is the evaluation of announcements of new reactors in view of challenges with regard to infrastructure, fuel supply, financing and other possible barriers. We assess each country’s announcements by means of an indicator-based method that considers a country’s political stability and its practical experience with reactor-building, its credit rating, the chances of realization in the context of the respective energy market, the limited global supply of reactor pressure vessels, and the current world economic crisis.

Results: We do not expect a renaissance of the use of nuclear energy until the year 2030. Instead, shutdowns of aged plants will lead to a decrease in the total number of plants, installed capacity and electricity generation from nuclear power plants. Until the year 2020, the number of reactors in operation worldwide is likely to decrease by 22 %; until the year 2030 by about 29 % relative to the reference level of March 2009. In spite of an increase in construction activity compared to construction in the last 10 years, the building boom of the 1970s/80s will not be reached again. Announcements for new reactor are currently increasing. However, ambitious announcements of the past – in particular in the USA, but in other countries as well – have subsequently not materialized. We expect that about 23 % of all the projects announced by the German ”International Journal for Nuclear Power” ATW for the time until 2020 will be realized, and that about 35 % of the projects announced by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) for the time until 2030 will be realized. The development path we consider to be realistic specifically depends on the chosen assumptions regarding the remaining lifetime of existing nuclear reactors and the extent to which the announcements of China, Russia, the USA, India and Japan will materialize.